AFL Betting Tips 2025: Round 14 Best Bets And Betting Trends
Round 14 of the 2025 AFL season returned a 6% profit for readers who staked evenly on our six selections at the chosen odds, with Brisbane’s fourth-quarter choke (zero goals and eight behinds!) denying us a healthy return of nearly +30%.
However, a win is a win, so we’ll take the positive form into another split round which features some very interesting matches from a wagering perspective, with a couple of near ‘coin toss’ games and some potential blowouts.
After reviewing the hundreds of markets offered by the best Australian betting sites out there, we have once again come up with our three best selections of the week as well as finding the highest value for three popular player props to add to your weekend multis.
AFL Round 14 Predictions:
- Hawthorn To Beat Adelaide - 1.90 With Ladbrokes
- Lions Vs Giants: Under 168.5 Total Points - 1.90 With Picklebet
- West Coast Vs Carlton: Under 167.5 Total Points - 1.90 With PlayUp
Hawthorn Vs Adelaide, Friday 7:40pm AEST
In a game that’s considered to be 50-50 or close to by almost all AFL betting apps, we’re searching for any possible advantage we can find to pick a winner - such as home-ground advantage!
Friday night football graces Launceston with its presence and Hawthorn have won seven straight matches at their ‘home away from home’, most recently defeating the Giants by 12 points in Round 4 despite being down by 35 points at the first change.
Their Premiership credentials were rightfully questioned after a trilogy of losses to contenders Brisbane, Gold Coast and Collingwood, but they were strong against the Bulldogs last week.
Adelaide have a 2-3 record away from home this year, defeating Essendon and Sydney but losing away to Gold Coast, Fremantle and Collingwood, all three of whom join them and Hawthorn in the top eight.
The Crows can’t dispute they got away with murder last week given Brisbane’s 0.8 final term but they remain blessed with many sharpshooters, going into this round with the league’s best kicking accuracy (54.1%) and highest points scored (101) per game.
It’s the side you can back with the most confidence in regards to goalkicking markets, and we’ve picked out Josh Rachele to get at least two on the board, which he has done in five of his last six games, making an even money price simply outstanding.
Best Bet: Hawthorn To Beat Adelaide - 1.90 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Josh Rachele 2+ Goals - 2.00 With Betr
Brisbane Vs GWS Giants, Saturday 1:20pm AEST
Still searching for the complete four-quarter performance that has eluded them for much of the year, defending premiers Brisbane must quickly put last week’s dismal display behind them as they return to the Gabba to host a side that also has questions to answer.
The sight of their opponents could stalk Giants players with nightmarish memories of their own 44-point collapse to Brisbane in last year’s semi-finals, further fuelling motivation to climb back towards the top four.
The frustrating inconsistency of both clubs makes picking a winner or a margin difficult but the total points handicap could be a tad on the high side considering the season averages for both sides.
The Lions and Giants seeing 163.8 and 160.7 total points per game in 2025 - well below the mark of 168.5 set by AFL betting sites.
Perhaps that’s why nine of Brisbane’s last 10 matches at The Gabba finished under the main total points handicap, and yet the bookies may have not corrected for that enough here.
Both sides are in the top six for fewest disposals conceded per game so we’ll be cautious with the individual disposals markets.
Despite our prediction about the total score, we will instead look to Jake Riccardi to kick 2+ goals for a fourth straight match at a very tasty 2.90 on Bet365.
Best Bet: Lions Vs Giants: Under 168.5 Total Points - 1.90 With Picklebet
Player Prop: Jake Riccardi 2+ goals - 2.90 With Bet365
West Coast Vs Carlton, Sunday 6:10pm AEST
Bookmakers expect the final game of the round to be one of its most one-sided, as West Coast look to significantly improve on their 71-point Gather Round loss to Carlton in Adelaide – the fifth consecutive time they have failed to cover the line against the Blues.
With 57% of games across the first 13 rounds falling short of the total points handicap, we continue to keep a close eye out for potential value on that front.
Australian betting apps have set a total of 167.5 for this game, which is going to require a lot of heavy lifting from Carlton considering their hosts are scoring just 68 points per match.
The Eagles in return are going for 105 points against per game but a lot of that has come from blowouts against some of the league’s heaviest scorers such as Geelong (116), Adelaide (128), Hawthorn (124) and Gold Coast (136).
Carlton put up 121 on the Eagles earlier this year but haven’t hit triple figures in any of their last six matches thanks to some middling kicking accuracy.
The Eagles are conceding more disposals per game than any other side but Richmond, so we can freely sink our teeth into the player disposals markets with confidence here.
You can get better odds across the board for Sam Walsh to rack up 30+ touches compared with his teammate George Hewett, and whilst Hewett has a slightly higher average this season (28 to 26), Walsh has hit 30+ on twice as many occasions.
If Carlton dominates the midfield battle as expected, these two could have a field day.
Best Bet: West Coast Vs Carlton: Under 167.5 Total Points - 1.90 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Sam Walsh 30+ Disposals - 2.8 With Unibet
