AFL Betting Tips 2025: Round 11 Best Bets And Betting Trends
Round 10 was a break-even weekend for readers of our free AFL best bets blog, with our only regret being that we took the conservative option for Oliver Dempsey after he kicked a second goal for an eighth time this season!
Followers will be taking a 7% profit for the year into Round 11 if staking evenly on each of our six selections for the round, and there are a couple of mouthwatering clashes to headline this weekend.
This includes an in-form Bulldogs heading to Geelong for the Thursday night fixture.
As always, we’ve run our eyes over the hundreds of markets offered by the best Australian betting sites to come up with our three selections for the weekend, as well as finding you the best value for three popular player bets.
AFL Round 11 Predictions:
- Western Bulldogs To Win - 1.96 With PlayUp
- Demons Vs Swans: Either Team To Win By Under 24.5 Points - 1.77 With Betr
- Saints Vs Suns: Over 171.5 Points - 1.90 With Picklebet
Geelong Vs Western Bulldogs, Thursday 7:30pm AEST
The two biggest winners of Round 10 open up proceedings in Geelong, where the Dogs were triumphant by 47 points in the second half of 2024, as well as by 25 in the final round of 2023.
They have lost Patrick Dangerfield to a hamstring injury as a result of their thumping win away to Port Adelaide, but the 35-year-old had not kicked more than one goal in any of his three matches prior to going off injured last weekend.
His absence may not be as sorely felt as it might have been a month prior.
That aside, the Dogs have got a red-hot midfield going at the moment and are scoring as though Sam Darcy never existed, piling on a league-best average of 103.8 points per game to go with a slightly better defence than Geelong’s in terms of points conceded.
Losing four of their first five games of the season as outsiders is a slight concern, but on the flipside, the Cats have just a 4-3 record as favourites following a narrow loss to GWS in Geelong.
Rhylee West has been in exemplary form and has been driving the Bulldogs’ recent success with multiple goals in each of his last five matches, so he could be a good pick in the 2+ goals market.
Best Bet: Western Bulldogs To Win - 1.96 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Rhylee West 2+ Goals - 1.73 With Bet365
Melbourne Vs Sydney, Sunday 3:20pm AEST
Sydney Swans have seen an equal-league high five of their 10 games decided by a margin of under 16.5 points, and betting apps are anticipating a similarly close match when they come up against a side they last faced - and lost to - in the opening round of 2024.
Both teams are within striking distance of the top eight with 4-6 records, but the Demons have the superior short-term form line.
They mauled reigning premiers Brisbane last weekend with an impressive fourth-quarter display that was some of their best footy of the year.
The Swans have also been at their most dangerous after three-quarter-time in recent weeks, overrunning Carlton last weekend, six days after they should have and would have beaten Essendon in a similar manner were it not for some poor set-shot kicking.
For that reason, we’ll replicate the successful approach we took to the Collingwood v Adelaide game last weekend and back either team to win by a margin of under 24.5 points in Betr’s “Triple Margin II” market.
Kysaiah Pickett has a poor history against the Swans, but off the back of 2+ goal games in four of his last six appearances, we’ll be behind them to buck the long-term trend in favour of the short-term one.
Best Bet: Either Team To Win By Under 24.5 points - 1.77 With Betr
Player Prop: Kysaiah Pickett 2+ goals - 2.03 With Ladbrokes
St Kilda Vs Gold Coast, Sunday 4:40pm AEST
One trend we like to observe throughout the year is which teams are under or overachieving in terms of total points scored and conceded.
This can help identify potential edges in total points markets.
49% of all AFL matches this season finished over the main pre-match total points handicap, which is to be expected, but the two sides that have trended in favour of the ‘overs’ this season go head-to-head under the Marvel Stadium roof on Sunday evening.
Seven of the nine (78%) matches the Suns have been involved in this season finished over the handicap, as did eight of St Kilda’s ten (80%) games, which is significantly out of step with the rest of the competition.
The average total points scored/conceded by both the Suns (182.2 per game) and the Saints (176.5) is well above the 171.5 point mark set for this match during the week.
Saints forward Jack Higgins is a Marvel Stadium specialist, kicking at least three goals in five of his last six appearances there, making him an appealing prospect for goalscoring markets.
There were some wild discrepancies amongst Australian bookmakers on that note, with odds of anywhere from 2.20 to 3.15 on Unibet (at time of writing) being offered for Higgins to boot 3+. A huge difference!
Best Bet: Over 171.5 Total Points - 1.9 With Picklebet
Player Prop: Jack Higgins 3+ Goals - 3.15 With Unibet
